Predicting the risk of chest radiograph abnormality 12-weeks post hospitalisation with SARS CoV-2 PCR confirmed COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Routine follow-up of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 is recommended, however due to the ongoing high number of infections this is not without significant health resource and economic burden. In a previous study we investigated the prevalence of, and risk factors for, persistent chest radiograph (CXR) abnormalities post-hospitalisation with COVID-19 and identified a 5-point composite score that strongly predicted risk of persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. Here we sought to validate and refine our findings in an independent cohort of patients. METHODOLOGY: A single-centre prospective study of consecutive patients attending a virtual post-hospitalisation COVID-19 clinic and CXR as part of their standard clinical care between 2nd March - 22nd June 2021. Inpatient and follow-up CXRs were scored by the assessing clinician for extent of pulmonary infiltrates (0-4 in each lung) with complete resolution defined as a follow-up score of zero. RESULTS: 182 consecutive patients were identified of which 31% had persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. Patients with persistent CXR abnormality were significantly older (p < 0.001), had a longer hospital length of stay (p = 0.005), and had a higher incidence of both level 2 or 3 facility admission (level 2/3 care) (p = 0.003) and ever-smoking history (p = 0.038). Testing our composite score in the present cohort we found it predicted persistent CXR abnormality with reasonable accuracy (area under the receiver operator curve [AUROC 0.64]). Refining this score replacing obesity with Age ≥ 50 years, we identify the SHADE-750 score (1-point each for; Smoking history, Higher-level care (level 2/3 admission), Age ≥ 50 years, Duration of admission ≥ 15 days and Enzyme-lactate dehydrogenase (LDH ≥ 750U/L), that accurately predicted risk of persistent CXR abnormality, both in the present cohort (AUROC 0.73) and when retrospectively applied to our 1st cohort (AUROC 0.79). Applied to both cohorts combined (n = 213) it again performed strongly (AUROC 0.75) with all patients with a score of zero (n = 18) having complete CXR resolution at 12-weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In two independent cohorts of patients hospitalised with COVID-19, we identify a 5-point score which accurately predicts patients at risk of persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. This tool could be used by clinicians to identify patients in which radiological follow-up may not be required.

The Detrimental Clinical Associations of Anxiety and Depression with Difficult Asthma Outcomes

Difficult asthma describes asthma in which comorbidities, inadequate treatment, suboptimal inhaler technique and/or poor adherence impede good asthma control. The association of anxiety and depression with difficult asthma outcomes (exacerbations, hospital admissions, asthma control, etc.) is unclear. This study assessed the clinical associations of anxiety and depression with difficult asthma outcomes in patients with a specialist diagnosis of difficult asthma. Using real-world data, we retrospectively phenotyped patients from the Wessex Asthma Cohort of Difficult Asthma (N = 441) using clinical diagnoses of anxiety and depression against those without anxiety or depression (controls). Additionally, we stratified patients by severity of psychological distress using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). We found that depression and/or anxiety were reported in 43.1% of subjects and were associated with worse disease-related questionnaire scores. Each psychological comorbidity group showed differential associations with difficult asthma outcomes. Anxiety alone (7.9%) was associated with dysfunctional breathing and more hospitalisations [anxiety, median (IQR): 0 (2) vs. controls: 0 (0)], while depression alone (11.6%) was associated with obesity and obstructive sleep apnoea. The dual anxiety and depression group (23.6%) displayed multimorbidity, worse asthma outcomes, female predominance and earlier asthma onset. Worse HADS-A scores in patients with anxiety were associated with worse subjective outcomes (questionnaire scores), while worse HADS-D scores in patients with depression were associated with worse objective (ICU admissions and maintenance oral corticosteroid requirements) and subjective outcomes. In conclusion, anxiety and depression are common in difficult asthma but exert differential detrimental effects. Difficult asthma patients with dual anxiety and depression experience worse asthma outcomes alongside worse measures of psychological distress. There is a severity-gradient association of HADS scores with worse difficult asthma outcomes. Collectively, our findings highlight the need for holistic, multidisciplinary approaches that promote early identification and management of anxiety and depression in difficult asthma patients.

Biomarker identification using dynamic time warping analysis: a longitudinal cohort study of patients with COVID-19 in a UK tertiary hospital.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 is a heterogeneous disease, and many reports have described variations in demographic, biochemical and clinical features at presentation influencing overall hospital mortality. However, there is little information regarding longitudinal changes in laboratory prognostic variables in relation to disease progression in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. DESIGN AND SETTING: This retrospective observational report describes disease progression from symptom onset, to admission to hospital, clinical response and discharge/death among patients with COVID-19 at a tertiary centre in South East England. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred and fifty-one patients treated for SARS-CoV-2 between March and September 2020 were included in this analysis. Ethical approval was obtained from the HRA Specific Review Board (REC 20/HRA/2986) for waiver of informed consent. RESULTS: The majority of patients presented within 1 week of symptom onset. The lowest risk patients had low mortality (1/45, 2%), and most were discharged within 1 week after admission (30/45, 67%). The highest risk patients, as determined by the 4C mortality score predictor, had high mortality (27/29, 93%), with most dying within 1 week after admission (22/29, 76%). Consistent with previous reports, most patients presented with high levels of C reactive protein (CRP) (67% of patients >50 mg/L), D-dimer (98%>upper limit of normal (ULN)), ferritin (65%>ULN), lactate dehydrogenase (90%>ULN) and low lymphocyte counts (81%

Wave comparisons of clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 admissions - Exploring the impact of treatment and strain dynamics.

OBJECTIVES: Dexamethasone has now been incorporated into the standard of care for COVID-19 hospital patients. However, larger intensive care unit studies have failed to show discernible improvements in mortality in the recent wave. We aimed to investigate the impacts of these factors on disease outcomes in a UK hospital study. METHODS: This retrospective observational study reports patient characteristics, interventions and outcomes in COVID-19 patients from a UK teaching hospital; cohort 1, pre 16th June-2020 (pre-dexamethasone); cohort 2, 17th June to 30th November-2020 (post-dexamethasone, pre-VOC 202,012/01 as dominant strain); cohort 3, 1st December-2020 to 3rd March-2021 (during establishment of VOC202012/01 as the dominant strain). RESULTS: Dexamethasone treatment was more common in cohorts 2 and 3 (42.7% and 51.6%) compared with cohort 1 (2.5%). After adjusting for risk, odds of death within 28 days were 2-fold lower in cohort 2 vs 1 (OR:0.47,[0.27,0.79],p = 0.006). Mortality was higher cohort 3 vs 2 (20% vs 14%); but not significantly different to cohort 1 (OR: 0.86,[0.64, 1.15],p = 0.308). CONCLUSIONS: The real world finding of lower mortality following dexamethasone supports the published trial evidence and highlights ongoing need for research with introduction of new treatments and ongoing concern over new COVID-19 variants.

Dysregulation of COVID-19 related gene expression in the COPD lung.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are at increased risk of poor outcome from Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Early data suggest elevated Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) expression, but relationships to disease phenotype and downstream regulators of inflammation in the Renin-Angiotensin system (RAS) are unknown. We aimed to determine the relationship between RAS gene expression relevant to SARS-CoV-2 infection in the lung with disease characteristics in COPD, and the regulation of newly identified SARS-CoV-2 receptors and spike-cleaving proteases, important for SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We quantified gene expression using RNA sequencing of epithelial brushings and bronchial biopsies from 31 COPD and 37 control subjects. RESULTS: ACE2 gene expression (log2-fold change (FC)) was increased in COPD compared to ex-smoking (HV-ES) controls in epithelial brushings (0.25, p = 0.042) and bronchial biopsies (0.23, p = 0.050), and correlated with worse lung function (r = - 0.28, p = 0.0090). ACE2 was further increased in frequent exacerbators compared to infrequent exacerbators (0.51, p = 0.00045) and associated with use of ACE inhibitors (ACEi) (0.50, p = 0.0034), having cardiovascular disease (0.23, p = 0.048) or hypertension (0.34, p = 0.0089), and inhaled corticosteroid use in COPD subjects in bronchial biopsies (0.33, p = 0.049). Angiotensin II receptor type (AGTR)1 and 2 expression was decreased in COPD bronchial biopsies compared to HV-ES controls with log2FC of -0.26 (p = 0.033) and - 0.40, (p = 0.0010), respectively. However, the AGTR1:2 ratio was increased in COPD subjects compared with HV-ES controls, log2FC of 0.57 (p = 0.0051). Basigin, a newly identified potential SARS-CoV-2 receptor was also upregulated in both brushes, log2FC of 0.17 (p = 0.0040), and bronchial biopsies, (log2FC of 0.18 (p = 0.017), in COPD vs HV-ES. Transmembrane protease, serine (TMPRSS)2 was not differentially regulated between control and COPD. However, various other spike-cleaving proteases were, including TMPRSS4 and Cathepsin B, in both epithelial brushes (log2FC of 0.25 (p = 0.0012) and log2FC of 0.56 (p = 5.49E-06), respectively) and bronchial biopsies (log2FC of 0.49 (p = 0.00021) and log2FC of 0.246 (p = 0.028), respectively). CONCLUSION: This study identifies key differences in expression of genes related to susceptibility and aetiology of COVID-19 within the COPD lung. Further studies to understand the impact on clinical course of disease are now required.

Research Evaluation Alongside Clinical Treatment in COVID-19 (REACT COVID-19): an observational and biobanking study.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 places immense worldwide demand on healthcare services. Earlier identification of patients at risk of severe disease may allow intervention with experimental targeted treatments, mitigating the course of their disease and reducing critical care service demand. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective observational study of patients tested or treated for SARS-CoV-2, who are under the care of the tertiary University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust (UHSFT), captured data from admission to discharge; data collection commenced on 7 March 2020. Core demographic and clinical information, as well as results of disease-defining characteristics, was captured and recorded electronically from hospital clinical record systems at the point of testing. Manual data were collected and recorded by the clinical research team for assessments which are not part of the structured electronic healthcare record, for example, symptom onset date. Thereafter, participant records were continuously updated during hospital stay and their follow-up period. Participants aged >16 years were given the opportunity to provide consent for excess clinical sample storage with optional further biological sampling. These anonymised samples were linked to the clinical data in the Real-time Analytics for Clinical Trials platform and were stored within a biorepository at UHSFT. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the HRA Specific Review Board (REC 20/HRA/2986) for waiver of informed consent for the database-only cohort; the procedures conform with the Declaration of Helsinki. The study design, protocol and patient-facing documentation for the biobanking arm of the study have been approved by North West Research Ethics Committee (REC 17/NW/0632) as an amendment to the National Institute for Health Research Southampton Clinical Research Facility-managed Southampton Research Biorepository. This study will be published as peer-reviewed articles and presented at conferences, presentations and workshops.